Revenue at Risk (RAR) Tracking

    Account Management

    Flag and manage threatened revenue to protect renewals and forecast accurately.

    By Sebastian StreiffertPublished Jan 10, 2026Updated May 29, 20268 min read

    What Is Revenue at Risk?

    Revenue at Risk (RAR) is the portion of your recurring revenue that might not renew. When an account shows signs of trouble (declining usage, support escalations, champion departure), you flag that revenue as "at risk" so your team can intervene before it churns.

    This is not theoretical concern. It is a specific dollar amount tied to a specific account, with a documented reason and an expected timeline. RAR entries give leadership visibility into potential revenue gaps months before they appear in the financial statements.

    RAR differs from standard deal probability. A deal at 70% probability might close or not. RAR flags existing revenue that you already have but might lose. Different problem, different workflow.

    When to Flag Revenue at Risk

    Not every account hiccup warrants a RAR entry. The goal is to surface genuinely threatened revenue, not to create a worry list. Here are the signals that typically justify flagging:

    Usage Decline

    Account activity dropped significantly. If a customer used to log in daily and now logs in weekly, something changed. Worth investigating.

    Champion Departure

    Your primary contact left the company or moved to a different role. The new decision-maker may reevaluate vendor relationships.

    Competitor Evaluation

    The account mentioned evaluating alternatives, or you discovered they are in conversations with a competitor. Serious signal.

    Budget Pressure

    Customer indicated budget cuts, hiring freezes, or organizational restructuring. Vendor contracts often get scrutinized during cost reduction efforts.

    Some teams also flag accounts approaching renewal without confirmed expansion or renewal commitment. The logic: if you do not have a signed renewal 90 days out, treat that revenue as partially at risk until confirmed.

    Creating a RAR Entry

    To flag revenue at risk, navigate to the Account detail page and look for the "Revenue at Risk" section. Click Add to open the Add Revenue at Risk dialog.

    Fields

    FieldDescriptionExample
    Exposed RevenueThe value threatened (partial or full contract)$45,000
    Risk LikelihoodSlider, 10 to 100% in steps of 540%
    Impact DurationPermanent reduces every future month; Temporary reduces a fixed windowTemporary
    Duration (months)Length of the window, when Temporary is selected6
    Effective DateWhen the reduction starts applying to the forecast1 March
    NotesOptional context about the situationVP of Ops left in November, new contact is evaluating options
    There is no risk-category or reason field. Put the why in Notes so the entry stays readable to whoever picks it up next.

    Partial vs. Full Risk

    You do not have to flag the entire contract value. If a $100K account might downgrade to a smaller tier, flag $40K at risk. If the entire relationship is threatened, flag the full amount. Be realistic rather than conservative or aggressive.

    Avoid duplicate entries. If you already have a RAR flag for "budget concerns" and the situation worsens, update the existing entry rather than creating a second one. Multiple entries for the same underlying issue inflate your risk totals.

    Managing RAR Entries

    RAR entries require ongoing attention. Situations evolve, and your flags should reflect current reality.

    Keeping an entry current

    • Raise Risk Likelihood if warning signs intensify
    • Lower it if you receive positive signals
    • Update Notes with new context from customer conversations
    • Adjust Exposed Revenue if partial churn becomes more or less likely

    Closing entries

    RAR entries have no status field. When the situation concludes, delete the entry from the Revenue at Risk list on the account. That removes it from risk totals and from the forecast deduction immediately.

    Because deletion is the close, record the outcome before you delete: the entry is logged on the account timeline when created, so add a note there if the save or the churn is worth remembering.
    Set a reminder to review RAR entries weekly. Stale entries undermine the credibility of your risk tracking. If an entry has not been updated in 30+ days, either it was resolved and needs closing, or the situation changed and needs documentation.

    RAR Impact on Forecasting

    Lumenbase incorporates RAR into revenue forecasts, adjusting expected revenue based on flagged risks.

    How the Calculation Works

    For each RAR entry, the system reduces forecast revenue by the risk-adjusted amount:

    Risk-Adjusted Deduction
    Exposed Revenue × (Risk Likelihood / 100) = Forecast Reduction

    A $50,000 entry at 60% probability reduces your forecast by $30,000. If multiple entries exist for an account, they are summed. The account's net expected revenue equals contracted value minus total risk-adjusted deductions.

    Viewing RAR in Reports

    The Revenue Forecast and Account Health reports include RAR totals. You can filter to see only at-risk accounts, sort by risk amount, or group by risk reason to identify patterns.

    Building a RAR Review Process

    RAR tracking only works if someone actually acts on the information. Here is a simple process that works for most teams:

    1. Weekly review: Customer Success or Account Management reviews all active RAR entries. Update probabilities, add notes, close resolved items.
    2. Save plan assignment: Each high-probability entry should have a specific save plan. Who is reaching out? What is the offer? When will we know?
    3. Escalation threshold: Entries above a certain dollar amount (say, $25K) automatically escalate to a manager or executive for visibility.
    4. Monthly trending: Leadership reviews RAR trends. Is total risk increasing? Are save rates improving? Which risk reasons appear most often?
    Some teams automate parts of this. An automation can create a task when a RAR entry is created, assign it to the account owner, and set a due date for follow-up.

    RAR Best Practices

    After working with teams across different industries, these approaches tend to produce the most useful RAR tracking:

    • Flag early, update often. A 20% risk flagged at 120 days out is more useful than a 90% risk flagged at 10 days out. Early warning enables intervention.
    • Be honest about probability. If you do not know the real likelihood, start at 50% and adjust as you learn more. Systematic optimism or pessimism distorts your forecast.
    • Track resolution outcomes. Your save rate (resolved as Saved vs. Churned) indicates how well your team responds to risk signals. Aim to improve it over time.
    • Look for patterns. If "Champion Departure" entries churn at 70% while "Budget Concerns" entries churn at 30%, weight new entries accordingly.
    • Connect to health scores. Accounts with low health scores but no RAR entries deserve scrutiny. Either the health score is wrong or someone should flag risk.

    Quick Reference

    Add RAR Entry: Account → Revenue at Risk → Add
    View All Risks: Accounts → Filter by 'Has RAR'
    RAR in Forecast: Analytics → Revenue Forecast → includes RAR adjustments
    Close an entry: Delete it from the account's Revenue at Risk list
    Forecast toggle: Settings → Workspace → Configuration → Forecasting

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