Revenue at Risk (RAR) Tracking
Flag and manage threatened revenue to protect renewals and forecast accurately.
By Sebastian StreiffertPublished Jan 10, 2026Updated May 4, 20268 min read
What Is Revenue at Risk?
Revenue at Risk (RAR) is the portion of your recurring revenue that might not renew. When an account shows signs of trouble (declining usage, support escalations, champion departure), you flag that revenue as "at risk" so your team can intervene before it churns.
This is not theoretical concern. It is a specific dollar amount tied to a specific account, with a documented reason and an expected timeline. RAR entries give leadership visibility into potential revenue gaps months before they appear in the financial statements.
When to Flag Revenue at Risk
Not every account hiccup warrants a RAR entry. The goal is to surface genuinely threatened revenue, not to create a worry list. Here are the signals that typically justify flagging:
Usage Decline
Champion Departure
Competitor Evaluation
Budget Pressure
Some teams also flag accounts approaching renewal without confirmed expansion or renewal commitment. The logic: if you do not have a signed renewal 90 days out, treat that revenue as partially at risk until confirmed.
Creating a RAR Entry
To flag revenue at risk, navigate to the Account detail page and look for the "Revenue at Risk" section. Click "Add Risk Entry" to create a new flag.
Required Fields
| Field | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Amount at Risk | The dollar value threatened (partial or full contract) | $45,000 ARR |
| Risk Reason | Category for the risk type | Champion Departure |
| Description | Specific context about the situation | VP of Ops left in November, new contact is evaluating options |
| Probability | Likelihood this revenue churns (0 to 100%) | 40% |
| Expected Resolution | When you expect clarity | End of Q1 |
Partial vs. Full Risk
You do not have to flag the entire contract value. If a $100K account might downgrade to a smaller tier, flag $40K at risk. If the entire relationship is threatened, flag the full amount. Be realistic rather than conservative or aggressive.
Managing RAR Entries
RAR entries require ongoing attention. Situations evolve, and your flags should reflect current reality.
Updating Risk Status
- Increase probability if warning signs intensify
- Decrease probability if you receive positive signals
- Update the description with new context from customer conversations
- Adjust the amount if partial churn becomes more or less likely
Resolving Entries
When the situation concludes, resolve the entry with one of three outcomes:
| Resolution | When to Use | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Saved | Customer renewed or threat was mitigated | Removed from risk totals, logged as success |
| Churned | Customer cancelled or downgraded | Revenue removed, logged for churn analysis |
| False Alarm | Risk was never real (bad data, miscommunication) | Removed without counting as save or churn |
RAR Impact on Forecasting
Lumenbase incorporates RAR into revenue forecasts, adjusting expected revenue based on flagged risks.
How the Calculation Works
For each RAR entry, the system reduces forecast revenue by the risk-adjusted amount:
A $50,000 entry at 60% probability reduces your forecast by $30,000. If multiple entries exist for an account, they are summed. The account's net expected revenue equals contracted value minus total risk-adjusted deductions.
Viewing RAR in Reports
The Revenue Forecast and Account Health reports include RAR totals. You can filter to see only at-risk accounts, sort by risk amount, or group by risk reason to identify patterns.
Building a RAR Review Process
RAR tracking only works if someone actually acts on the information. Here is a simple process that works for most teams:
- Weekly review: Customer Success or Account Management reviews all active RAR entries. Update probabilities, add notes, close resolved items.
- Save plan assignment: Each high-probability entry should have a specific save plan. Who is reaching out? What is the offer? When will we know?
- Escalation threshold: Entries above a certain dollar amount (say, $25K) automatically escalate to a manager or executive for visibility.
- Monthly trending: Leadership reviews RAR trends. Is total risk increasing? Are save rates improving? Which risk reasons appear most often?
RAR Best Practices
After working with teams across different industries, these approaches tend to produce the most useful RAR tracking:
- Flag early, update often. A 20% risk flagged at 120 days out is more useful than a 90% risk flagged at 10 days out. Early warning enables intervention.
- Be honest about probability. If you do not know the real likelihood, start at 50% and adjust as you learn more. Systematic optimism or pessimism distorts your forecast.
- Track resolution outcomes. Your save rate (resolved as Saved vs. Churned) indicates how well your team responds to risk signals. Aim to improve it over time.
- Look for patterns. If "Champion Departure" entries churn at 70% while "Budget Concerns" entries churn at 30%, weight new entries accordingly.
- Connect to health scores. Accounts with low health scores but no RAR entries deserve scrutiny. Either the health score is wrong or someone should flag risk.
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